Why have epidemiological forecasts been so wrong and what to do about it If we look at the forecasts, we got from epidemiologists initially in the Covid-19 pandemic it has turned out that they have massively wrong. While tragic the number of people who has died in this pandemic has been much lower than forecasted. […]
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Why have epidemiological forecasts been so wrong and what to do about it
Posted by Lars Christensen on May 19, 2020
https://marketmonetarist.com/2020/05/19/why-have-epidemiological-forecasts-been-so-wrong-and-what-to-do-about-it/
Heading for double-digit US inflation
I have spend a lot of my time since 2008 arguing that US monetary policy was much less expansionary than most people thought and has been arguing for a more aggressive response from the Federal Reserve to combat deflationary pressures. Furthermore, I have last year welcomed the Fed’s policy respond to the lockdown crisis – […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on April 29, 2021
https://marketmonetarist.com/2021/04/29/heading-for-double-digit-us-inflation/
Re-visiting R*: Close to the end of the hiking cycle for the Fed
Last week I wrote a blog post in which I updated my outlook for US inflation based on the so-called P-star model. In that blog post, I argued that my forecast in April 2021 for much higher US inflation essentially had been spot on, but also that inflation now is set to start to inch […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on January 30, 2023
https://marketmonetarist.com/2023/01/30/re-visiting-r-close-to-the-end-of-the-hiking-cycle-for-the-fed/
R* strikes back: The Fed will hike sooner rather than later
The Federal Reserve’s mandate is clear – ensuring the maximum level of employment while at the same time ensuring price stability. Over time the Fed’s interpretation of this mandate has changed, but we can maybe get a bit closer by saying that the Fed has an ordering of the dual mandate. First the Fed wants […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on February 26, 2021
https://marketmonetarist.com/2021/02/26/r-strikes-back-the-fed-will-hike-sooner-rather-than-later/
When Americans vote in November unemployment will be below 6%
Friday’s US labour market report rightly got a lot of media attention globally. The spike in US unemployment to 15% surely is historical and tells us quite a bit about just how big a shock has hit the US and the global economy. However, where most commentators are wrong is assuming that this has to […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on May 10, 2020
https://marketmonetarist.com/2020/05/10/when-americans-vote-in-november-unemployment-will-be-below-6/
Did you book your speaker? Book me
Did you book your speaker for this year’s seminar or conference? You might as well book me! See a sample of my speeches here. To book me internationally see here. In Denmark see here. Or contact me directly: LC@mamoadvisory.com Recent speaking topics include: Populism and the global economy and markets 1930s style politics: Monetary policy failure […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on February 22, 2017
https://marketmonetarist.com/2017/02/22/did-you-book-your-speaker-book-me/
Rational investors and irrational voters
It seems like there is a bit of a gap opening between prediction markets and opinion polls when it comes to the likely outcome of the US presidential elections in recent days. Hence, the prediction market Predictit now has a 81% (19%) implied probability that Clinton (Trump) will win, while the opinion poll aggregator over […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on October 18, 2016
https://marketmonetarist.com/2016/10/18/rational-investors-and-irrational-voters/
Do economists know what will happen in 2016?
For the last couple of months I have been writing a weekly column for the Icelandic newspaper Fréttablaðið. I enjoy it a lot. First of all it keeps me in contact with Iceland – a country that since 2006 has been an important part of my professional and personal life. Second, it is a good […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on December 30, 2015
https://marketmonetarist.com/2015/12/30/do-economists-know-what-will-happen-in-2016/
Three simple changes to the Fed’s policy framework
Frankly speaking I don’t feel like commenting much on the FOMC’s decision today to keep the Fed fund target unchanged – it was as expected, but sadly it is very clear that the Fed has not given up the 1970s style focus on the Phillips curve and on the US labour market rather than focusing […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on January 27, 2016
https://marketmonetarist.com/2016/01/27/three-simple-changes-to-the-feds-policy-framework/
The Market Monetarist- Re-visited: Firefighter Arsonists – the myth of the central bankers as ‘good’ crisis managers
- US monetary policy has become too TIGHT – the Fed risks significantly UNDERSHOOTING it’s 2% inflation target
- ChatGPT, Python, FRED and some NGDP gaps
- Re-visiting R*: Close to the end of the hiking cycle for the Fed
- US inflation set to fall sharply in the coming quarters
- Recession or not? Answering a question the Fed should not care about
- Milton Friedman commented on Powell’s Fed in 1978
- Carl Bildt is puzzled – he should read an economics textbook
- US domestic spending – a closer look at the 2021-22 data
- A simple model for inflation that Jerome Powell should understand
The Market Monetarist 