Ukraine should adopt an ‘Export Price Norm’

It has not be a great year for Emerging Markets and the next Emerging Markets country to worry about could very well be Ukraine. This is what my Danske Bank colleague Sanna Kurronen has to say about Ukraine: We have been expecting a soft devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia for some time, as the artificially strong […]

Turning the Russian petro-monetary transmission mechanism upside-down

Big news out of Moscow today – not about the renewed escalation of military fighting in Eastern Ukraine, but rather about Russian monetary policy. Hence, today the Russian central bank (CBR) under the leadership of  Elvira Nabiullina effectively let the ruble float freely. The CBR has increasing allowed the ruble to float more and more […]

Recession time for Russia – the ultra wonkish version

I have long been a proponent of what I have called the Export Price Norm (EPN). The idea with EPN is that commodity exporting countries can ensure stable nominal spending growth by pegging their currency to either the price of the country’s main export good or to a basket of the export product and a […]

Commodity prices, currencies and monetary policy

It has been a busy year for me – it has especially been the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, which has kept me busy. However, I thought that this week would be fairly calm – I didn’t have any traveling planned, not a lot a meetings scheduled and I had not expected to be too busy. However, things […]

Listen to my new hero Jose Dario Uribe

The turmoil in the Emerging Markets currencies markets continues. Most EM central bankers seem to be very scared by the continued sell-off in Emerging Markets and central banks around the world have moved to hike interest rates and have intervened to curb the weakening of the Emerging Markets sell-off. This means that most EM central […]

Angola should adopt an ‘Export-Price-Norm’ to escape the ‘China shock’

It might be a surprise to most people but one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the last 10-15 years has been Angola. A combination of structural reforms and a commodity boom have boosted growth in the oil-rich African country. However, Angola is, however, at a crossroad and the future of the […]

The Cedi Panic: When prayers don’t work you go for currency controls

The Ghanaian cedi has lost more than 30% against the US dollar over the past year and the sell-off in the currency has escalated since the beginning of the year as the Ghanaian markets have been hit by the same turmoil we have seen in other Emerging Markets. The sharp cedi sell-off has sparked widespread concerns […]

How to choose a ”good” monetary regime

My recent trip to Iceland and my discussions there about the possible future changes to Iceland’s monetary regime have inspired me a great deal in terms of organising some of my views on monetary matters in general. Market Monetarists are known for our advocacy of nominal GDP level targeting, but it is also well-known that […]

The RBA just reminded us about the “Export Price Norm”

In my view one of the key reasons that Australia avoided recession in 2008-9 was the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) effectively is operating what I earlier have called a “Export Price Norm”. Here is what I earlier had to say about that: One of the reasons why I think the RBA has been relatively […]

Toilet paper shortage is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon

This is from Sky News: Venezuelans have been hit by a chronic toilet paper shortage, leading to empty supermarket shelves and long queues to snap up the remaining rolls…When new stocks arrive at supermarkets customers have been rushing in to fill their trollies. It started with a food shortage and now it is the lack […]