It is the same thing every month – anybody seriously interested in financial markets and the global economy are sitting and waiting for the US labour market report to come out even though the numbers are notoriously unstable and unreliable. Why is that? The simple answer is that it is not because the numbers are important […]
All posts found when searching for prediction markets
Yellen should re-read Friedman’s “The Role of Monetary Policy” and lay the Phillips curve to rest
Posted by Lars Christensen on August 8, 2015
https://marketmonetarist.com/2015/08/08/yellen-should-re-read-friedmans-the-role-of-monetary-policy-and-lay-the-phillips-curve-to-rest/
Rational Partisan Theory, elections, fiscal consolidation and exchange rate determination
When I was in university more than 20 years ago I had one other major interest other than monetary economics and that was public choice theory and I was particularly interested in how to understand macro economic issues through the use of public choice theory. I particularly remember writing a paper on Political Business Cycle […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on April 21, 2015
https://marketmonetarist.com/2015/04/21/rational-partisan-theory-elections-fiscal-consolidation-and-exchange-rate-determination/
Prediction markets and UK monetary policy
I have long argued that central banks should utilise prediction markets for macroeconomic forecasting and for the implementation of monetary policy. In today’s edition of the UK business daily City AM I have an oped on this topic and about how the Bank of England should have a closer look at prediction markets. See here: IN […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on August 28, 2013
https://marketmonetarist.com/2013/08/28/prediction-markets-and-uk-monetary-policy/
The Crowd: “Lars, you are fat!”
On Friday I was doing a presentation on the global economy (yes, yes mainly on global monetary policy) for 40-50 colleagues who are working as investment advisors in the Danske Bank group. As I was about to start my presentation somebody said “The audience have been kind of quiet today”. I thought that was a […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on November 18, 2013
https://marketmonetarist.com/2013/11/18/the-crowd-lars-you-are-fat/
A fistful of intellectual power: Goodbye Edward Hugh, R.I.P
Tonight I got the very sad news that British-Catalan economist Edward Hugh has passed away. This is from Ara in English: ARA has learned that British economist Edward Hugh (Liverpool, 1948) died of cancer on Tuesday at the Josep Trueta Hospital in Girona. Hugh moved to Catalonia in the 1990s and was considered by The New […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on December 30, 2015
https://marketmonetarist.com/2015/12/30/a-fistful-of-intellectual-power-goodbye-edward-hugh-r-i-p/
Guest post: Central bankers should watch the Eurovision (by Jens Pedersen)
Guest post: Central bankers should watch the Eurovision By Jens Pedersen Congratulations Emmelie de Forest with the 2013 Eurovision song contest first place. You have made all of Denmark very proud!! Denmark normally does not win anything, so this is really big for us! (note the irony…) However, I regret to say that I did […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on May 19, 2013
https://marketmonetarist.com/2013/05/19/guest-post-central-bankers-should-watch-the-eurovision-by-jens-pedersen/
Remembering the “Market” in Market Monetarism
A couple of days ago the young and talented George Mason University economist Alex Salter wrote the following statement on his Facebook account: I wish market monetarists would put relatively more emphasis on the “market” bit. I agree with Alex as I believe that one of the main points of Market Monetarism is that not […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on May 8, 2013
https://marketmonetarist.com/2013/05/08/remembering-the-market-in-market-monetarism/
Gabe Newell on prediction markets – NGDP level targeting and Lindsay Lohan
This is interesting – Gabe Newell on Youtube on the value of prediction markets. I love it…Gabe is co-founder and managing director of Video game developer video game development and online distribution company Valve Corporation (I stole that from Wikipedia). This guy is brilliant and he certainly understands markets. Some of my earlier posts on prediction markets: Yet another argument for prediction markets: […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on February 4, 2013
https://marketmonetarist.com/2013/02/04/gabe-newell-on-prediction-markets-ngdp-level-targeting-and-lindsay-lohan/
Leave it to the market to decide on “tapering”
The rally in the global stock markets has clearly run into trouble in the last couple of weeks. Particularly the Nikkei has taken a beating, but also the US stock market has been under some pressure. If one follows the financial media on a daily basis it is very clear that there is basically only […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on June 6, 2013
https://marketmonetarist.com/2013/06/06/leave-it-to-the-market-to-decide-on-tapering/
Unfocused vacation musings on money – part 2
It is sunny this morning in Skyrup and we are planning a daytrip to Kristianstad. The Danish king Christian IV founded the city of Kristianstad in 1614. We might be in Sweden, but Kristianstad still has its old Danish name and the Danish heritage is visible everywhere – including in the city’s Coat of Arms. […]
Posted by Lars Christensen on July 5, 2013
https://marketmonetarist.com/2013/07/05/unfocused-vacation-musings-on-money-part-2/
The Market Monetarist- Re-visited: Firefighter Arsonists – the myth of the central bankers as ‘good’ crisis managers
- US monetary policy has become too TIGHT – the Fed risks significantly UNDERSHOOTING it’s 2% inflation target
- ChatGPT, Python, FRED and some NGDP gaps
- Re-visiting R*: Close to the end of the hiking cycle for the Fed
- US inflation set to fall sharply in the coming quarters
- Recession or not? Answering a question the Fed should not care about
- Milton Friedman commented on Powell’s Fed in 1978
- Carl Bildt is puzzled – he should read an economics textbook
- US domestic spending – a closer look at the 2021-22 data
- A simple model for inflation that Jerome Powell should understand
The Market Monetarist 