Here are two sets of high-frequency US economic data: first, the daily US “inflation” numbers as measured by Truflation.com and the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock), which is a very good weekly indicator of US real GDP growth.
What are we seeing?
Inflation is sharply down…

… and (proxy) real GDP growth is sharply up.

This started in May and has accelerated in June.
I would love to say this is AI-driven, but I have no evidence that that is the case. However, the numbers are truly positive.
So, if you can ignore US politics for a moment and instead look at the US economy, you will see a very positive story unfolding.


Matthias
/ July 27, 2024Scott Sumner seems to think the positive supply shock might be largely down to extra immigration. What’s your guess?