Imagine that US non-farm payrolls were growing by 400k/month (that is how strong the UK labour market is)

My Danske Bank colleague Anders Vestergård Fischer had a fun idea today – he wanted to “translate” the latest UK labour market numbers into something an US audience could understand.

Here is the result of Anders’ back of an envelop calculations – if the US non-farm payrolls were growing as fast as the latest UK employment growth (Q3 2013) then the US economy would be adding 380-400k jobs per month! We haven’t seen job growth like that in the US since the late 1990s. Over the past three months US payrolls have growing around 190k per month.

So what are the explanations for the the UK labour market improvement? The negative spin: Horrible British productive growth. The positive spin: A very healthy combination of monetary easing and fiscal consolidation.


Pricing in Carney

Here is a paper I did with my colleague Anders Vestergård Fischer on the Bank of England and what to expect from the new BoE governor Mark Carney – obviously with a special focus on NGDP level targeting.

Our conclusion is that the markets are not in any way priced for NGDP targeting in the UK yet.

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