The McCallum rule is back – and so am I

It has been some time since I posted anything on The Market Monetarist – primarily because I have been doing other thing – among other things been running my consultancy Markets & Money Advisory (which I still do) and for a year have been the editor-in-chief of the Danish financial website Euroinvestor (which I no longer do).

However, I missed blogging and I have particularly missed having an outlet for my (casual?) thinking on monetary matters.

Consequently, I have reluctantly decided that I want to start blogging a bit again on The Market Monetarist.

How much I will be blogging the in the future is unclear as I also have to make a living doing other things – continuing my consultancy working (on international economics, markets and money), academic work as well as doing a lot of speaking engagements.

If you are interesting in getting in contact with me regarding these topics then feel free to drop me a mail on lacsen@gmail.com.

But now back to the monetary blogging.

The Fed has de facto targeted 4% NGDP growth since 2010

Officially the Federal Reserve targets to 2% inflation (measured as PCE core inflation). However, looking at the numbers it is clear that the Fed has consistently failed to deliver on this target.

Instead it actually seems like the Fed – consciously or not – have followed a nominal GDP level targeting rule as long favoured by market monetarists like Scott Sumner and David Beckworth and of course myself.

Or rather the Fed has done so after the 2008-9 crisis hit – exactly because the Fed failed to maintain the de facto NGDP level targeting regime of the pre-2008 Great Moderation period.

Roughly speaking the Fed was de facto targeting 5% NGDP growth from 2000 until 2007-8 and 4% NGDP growth since 2010 as the graph below illustrates.

4pct5pctNGDP.png

In it is rather remarkable just how close actual US nominal GDP has been to a 4% NGDP path since the beginning of 2010.

I personally, therefore, also think that the Fed should finally acknowledge this and replace its inflation target with a 4% NGDP level target – from the present level of GDP.

But what about the instrument?

In the past 25 years or so it has become the norm to think in terms of the conduct of monetary policy in the terms of the so-called Taylor rule as first proposed by John Taylor back in 1993.

Just to refresh the readers memory – this is the Taylor rule:

r = p + .5y + .5(p-2) + 2

Where r is the monetary policy interest rate “set” by the central bank, p is the rate of inflation and y is the output gap. The first “2” refers to the inflation target (assumed by Taylor to be 2%) and the second “2” refers to the natural interest rate (also assumed by Taylor to be 2%)

The Taylor rule was meant to be a simple representation of how the Fed actually conducted monetary policy, but later certainly also by many central banks – including the Fed – has been seen as a rule for how central banks actually should conduct monetary policy.

There is nothing surprising about this as the Taylor rule essentially have been seen by central banks as a way to implement the inflation targets, which was introduced by central banks around the world since the early 1990’s.

However, a lot of things have happened since the 1990’s.

First of all the natural interest rate likely is not 2% in the US – it is much lower.

Second, the Fed’s 2% inflation target is not being hit consistently and more and more monetary commentators are questioning whether an inflation target is a good idea in the first place and whether it should be 2%.

That all have to do with the right-hand side of the equation, but what about the left hand side. Why is it just assumed that the central bank “sets” the interest rate?

Monetarists and in recent year market monetarists have argued that the central bank in fact is not determining interest rates – or at least that central banks cannot maintain an interest rate, which is different from what essentially is the natural rate without either causing a sharp rise in inflation or a recession.

Consequently, monetarists such as Milton Friedman argued that central banks primarily should conduct monetary policy by controlling the growth rate of the money base and leave the determination of interest rates to the market.

This view of course over the last decade has made somewhat of a comeback as central banks have been forced by events – or rather by the simple fact that the natural interest rate has dropped significantly – to look at alternatives to interest rate “targeting” as the monetary policy instrument.

However, no central bank anywhere has taken the consequence of this and switched from interest rate controls to monetary base control – at least not consistently.

That said, when Taylor first introduced his rule there certainly was not a consensus that this was the right way to do things as a central banker.

A competing rule to the Taylor rule was the so-called McCallum rule first suggested by Bennett McCallum in 1987.

The McCallum Rule – time for a comeback

The McCallum rule is hardly taught at universities these days and my guess is that few central bankers know what the McCallum rule is, but it might nonetheless be time for a comeback for the McCallum rule. In fact it might already have made a comeback.

But lets first have a look at the McCallum rule:

b = x* – v* + .5(x* – x(t-1))

Where b is the quarterly growth rate of the money base, v* is the trend quarterly growth money base velocity (16 quarters moving average) and x* is the targeted quarterly growth rate of nominal GDP, while x(t-1) is the quarterly growth rate of nominal GDP in the previous quarter.

One can see why the McCallum rule should be of interest to present day practitioners and observers of monetary policy.

First of all, due to the zero lower bound issue with interest rates and uncertainty regarding the actual level of the natural interest rate money base control has become necessary even though central banks are very reluctant to acknowledge this.

Second, as I discussed above it looks like the Federal Reserve has been targeting NGDP rather than inflation and it is therefore natural to actually focus on a monetary policy rule where we have nominal GDP – rather than inflation – on the right hand side of the equation.

The question is – how has actual Fed policy been compared to a McCallum rule.

I have tested that by a simple simulation of the McCallum rule using the parametres suggested by McCallum and assumed that the Fed had a 5% NGDP growth target from 2000 to 2010 and then from 2010 and until today a 4% NGDP growth target.

I have, however, made one adjustment. Since, 2008 the Fed has paid interest rates on excess reserves held at the Fed, which greatly have distorted the money base numbers. I therefore, have constructed a series for what Jeff Hummel has called “outside money base”, which is the money base minus excess reserves.

This is how the actual development in outside money base quarterly growth (4qma) compares to the McCallum rule.

McCallum rule

It should be noted that this is not an estimated, but rather a simulated relationship based on the parametres suggested more than 30 years ago and it might obviously be possible to get a better fit, but the point here is that the McCallum rule does a remarkably good job in tracking actual monetary policy in the US both prior to and after the Great Recession hit in 2008-9.

In fact it is notable that it seems like the McCallum rule has been an even better indicator after 2008-9 than before – the difference between actual money base growth and the rule has been small after 2008-9 than before.

If we look at the difference between the rule and the actual money base growth we get a simple measure of excessively easy or tight monetary policy and we can use this to evaluate US monetary policy over the past decade.

We can for example see that the Fed was overly eager to “normalize” monetary policy in 2010 and hence caused money base growth to slow too much.

Likewise in 2011-13 during the euro crisis money base growth was slightly to slow and finally Janet Yellen’s obsession with the Phillips curve and the labour market caused the Fed to allow money base growth to slow too much.

Contrary to this, Fed chief Jay Powell was right slowing money base growth in 2017-18, but we can also see he in 2019 has overdone a bit and presently money base growth remains slightly too slow (around 4.5% y/y) compared to what the McCallum rule tells us it should be (6-6.5% y/y).

Time for the Fed to be serious about money base control

Concluding, we can see that using the McCallum rule as an indicator of monetary stance will be helpful and while I do not necessarily think the Fed should introduce a McCullum rule I nonetheless think the Fed – and Fed watchers – should pay a lot more attention to the McCallum rule and other similar money base rule.

Furthermore, I think it is about time that the Fed acknowledge that low rates are here to stay (it’s structural, stupid!) and consequently should think about how to start using the (outside) money base as the primary monetary policy instrument rather than continuing to mess around with interest rate targeting.

Furthermore, the Fed should make it de facto 4% NGDP target official and hence, use operational targets for permanent money base growth to hit this target.

This might seem a bit revolutionary, but when the market monetarists a decade ago started arguing for NGDP targeting that also sounded crazy. Now it has been the decade policy for nearly a decade.

Let me hear what you think of my comeback blog post and remember to follow me on Twitter.

And finally some sad news. One of my great heroes Marvin Goodfriend – long-time economist at the Richmond Fed and Professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business – has passed away. Marvin without a doubt was one of the greatest monetary thinkers of his generation and he will be greatly missed. (Remembering Marvin Goodfriend)

 

 

 

MTB Cast #3: Inflation worries hitting the markets?

Spring has come to Denmark, but a bit of jitters overnight in the global stock markets. Is it inflation fears? See my comments here.

Reflections on the Fed hike

Have a look at my comments on yesterday’s Fed hike.

 

And see our “country page” on the Fed, which will also feature in our soon-to-be-published Global Monetary Conditions Monitor. (In PDF here)

Skærmbillede 2017-03-15 kl. 07.20.51

FOMC preview – please hike, but be careful going forward

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike the Fed funds target rate by 25bp today. The real question is how much more the Fed will deliver going forward.

To get an idea about we are happy to give you a sneak preview on the “country page” for the US monetary policy from our soon to be launched Global Monetary Conditions Monitor (GMCM).

See here (in PDF here):

Skærmbillede 2017-03-15 kl. 07.20.51.png

Just to explain what we are doing in GMCM we do not try to forecast what central bankers will do, but rather we assess or measure monetary conditions. This is a lot less straight forward than people often think. For example the actually level of the key policy rate – in the case of the Fed the Fed funds target rate – on its own says very little about the monetary stance.

Overall, the price level and nominal demand in the economy is determined by the interaction between the money supply and money demand.

It is the task of the central bank to use whatever instrument(s) it uses to to ensure that this interaction between money supply and money demand causes the target – for example inflation – to be hit.

Therefore our starting point in GMCM is to assess monetary conditions relative to the given central bank’s target. In the case of the Fed a 2% inflation target.

Said in another way in our composite indicator for monetary conditions a zero “score” indicates that the Fed will hit its 2% inflation target in the medium-term (2-3 years). If the score is above (below) the then it indicates that the central bank will overshoot (undershoot) its inflation target.

Similar we say that monetary policy is too easy (tight) if the composite indicator is above (below) zero.

The composite indicator is a weighted average of four sub-indicators – broad money supply growth (in the case of the US Divisia M4-), nominal demand growth (often nominal GDP, but in the case of the US Private Consumption Expenditure growth), exchange rate developments and finally the key policy rate (the Fed funds target rate in the US).

For all of these sub-indicators we calculate a growth rate or level, which we believe is what we call “policy-consistent” meaning the growth rate of for example broad money supply growth, which is necessary to hit the central bank’s inflation target.

In the case of the US we see that broad money supply growth (here measured as Divisia M4- growth) presently is more or less in line with the policy-consistent growth rate meaning that looking at money supply growth along we should expect the Fed to hit it’s 2% inflation target in the medium-term.

For the money supply we calculate the policy-consistent growth rate based on the Equation of Exchange (in growth rates):

(1) m + v = p + y

Where m is the growth rate of the broad money supply, v is money-velocity growth, p is inflation and y is real GDP growth

We can re-arrange that:

(1)’ m-target = p-target + y* – v*

m-target is our policy-consistent growth rate for broad money growth, p-inflation is the inflation target (in the case of the US 2%), y* is the strutural trend in real GDP growth and v* is the structural trend in money-velocity. We generally use HP-filters to estimate y* and v*.

In the graph broad money supply growth on the US “country page” the dark green line is actually broad money supply growth and the light green line is m-target (the policy-consistent growth of m).

The difference between the two is essentially a measure of the monetary stance. This is the bars in the graph. Taking into account that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags” we take an 3-year weighted moving average of this gap. That is also the input into the composite indicator.

We use the same kind of method for the three other sub-indicators.

In the case of the US we see that money supply growth and nominal demand growth are pretty much in line with the policy-consistent growth rates, while the rate of appreciation of the dollar is (or rather has been) slightly too fast and the interest rate level is slightly too high.

Overall, we see that the composite indicator for the US is quite close to zero, but still below. This indicates that US monetary conditions are what we term “broadly neutral”, but also that inflation risks in the medium-term are twisted slightly to the downside relative to Fed’s 2% inflation target.

We also see this from our inflation forecast graph. The inflation “forecast” is essentially a simulation of the most likely path for inflation given the present monetary stance (not to be confused with Fed’s key policy rate) and the recent trends in inflation.

We see that the forecast is for US inflation to continue to inch up, but it will not quite get to 2%. This is pretty much also what for example TIPS breakeven inflation expectations show.

What does this mean for market pricing?

When assessing the overall monetary stance it is always very important to remember that we have to look at for example interest rates or the exchange rate relative to expectations. Hence, a 25bp interest rate hike today from the Fed in itself is not monetary tightening is it is completely priced in already.

Therefore, if we want to assess future monetary developments in the US we need to look at market pricing.

Overall the markets are presently pricing in somewhere between two and three 25bp hikes from the Fed this year – including the hike expected for today.

The purpose of our framework in Global Monetary Conditions Monitor is not to forecast how many rate hikes the Fed will deliver this year. But it can tell us about the consequences of difference paths for interest rates.

Hence, one can say that since our composite indicator for US monetary conditions indicates that the Fed is likely to slightly undershoot its 2% inflation target then it would be better for the Fed to deliver a little be less in terms of rate hikes than is presently priced by the markets.

This is not a forecast as central banks often do things they shouldn’t – if they didn’t it would be very easy to forecast their actions – but it nonetheless tells us something about the potential risks relative to market pricing if we assume that the Fed at least in he end will end up doing the right thing.

Looking for reviewers

We are looking forward to publishing Global Monetary Conditions Monitor very soon, but we are also still looking for input. So we are looking for “reviewers” of what we call the country pages of the 25 countries covered in GMCM.

So if you are interested in getting a sneak preview on parts of the GMCM in return for comments please let us know. Mail LC@mamoadvisory or LR@mamoadvisory.com. We prefer policy makers/central bankers and market participants, but don’t be shy to drop us a mail.

 

 

MTB cast #2: Icelandic currency controls, the Fed and European central bankers

So here we go again – another Mountain bike ride and another MTB cast. This time we got three in one.

First on Icelandic currency controls.

 

Second, this week’s FOMC meeting.

 

Third, are European central bankers overly worried about political risks?

MTB cast #1: Czech inflation to rise above 3%

I have been out on a mountain biking this morning, but I could not help noticing the Czech inflation numbers for February.

So have a look at my first MTB cast where I comment on the Czech inflation numbers.

If you like this I will continue doing this in the future and please remember to sign up for the Markets & Money Advisory Youtube channel.

See our updated inflation forecast in the graph below. It is based on the latest inflation data and trends as well as our composite indicator for Czech monetary conditions.

If you want to know more on our monetary conditions indicator please contact us by mail: LC@mamoadvisory.com or LR@mamoadvisory.com

Skærmbillede 2017-03-09 kl. 12.08.59


Update: The day started with Mountain biking and Czech inflation and ended with an interview with Icelandic TV (RUV TV) about the booming Icelandic economy. See here (in Danish and Icelandic).

Another look at our Global Monetary Conditions Monitor – the case of Hungary

Yesterday, we wrote a short post on Israeli monetary policy and linked to one page on Israeli monetary conditions to give an example of how the “country pages” in our – Markets & Money Advisory – new monthly flagship publication Global Monetary Conditions Monitor (GMCM) will look like. We expect to publish the first edition in March – coinciding with the launch of our new website.

So what is the GMCM? Overall one can say it is our attempt to create a measure of monetary conditions for investors and policy makers alike so they can track global monetary developments.

It will not be a forecasting publication as such, but obviously investors can use the publication to make informed decisions on investments as there certainly is no doubt that changes in monetary conditions have a significant impact on changes asset prices.

The overall structure in GMCM will be the following.

First of all, the firsts page (5-6 pages) will discuss global monetary developments with a particular focus on what we call the Global Monetary Superpowers – the Federal Reserve, PBoC, ECB, BoJ, BoE and SNB. The discussion will be based both on our new composite indicator of monetary conditions (see more below) in each of the “Superpowers” and on what the financial markets are telling us about monetary conditions and expectations for monetary policy.

This will be followed by a monthly “special topic” (1-2 pages). That could for example be about the relationship between our measure(s) of global monetary conditions and the development in equity prices or commodity prices or we could decide to zoom in on monetary policy developments in a given country that we find of particular interest.

Finally we will “country pages” for each of the 25 countries covered in the publication. The countries are the following:

Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Czech Republic
Egypt
Euro zone
Hungary
Iceland
Israel
Japan
Mexico
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Russia
Singapore
South Africa
South Korea
Sweden
Switzerland
Tunisa
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States

We expect to expand the number of countries to more than 30 countries in the coming months based on client requests and interests. The main focus is on countries with floating exchange rates with inflation targets or similar nominal targets. If  you are missing a country you are terribly interested in please let us know.

Each country page will consist of six graphs.

The first graph will be a graph for the development in our composite indicator for monetary conditions in that given country. This indicator is calibrated so that a value of zero indicates that the central bank is likely to hit its inflation target in the medium-term (2-3 years).

A score below (above) zero indicates that the central bank will undershoot (overshoot) its inflation target and hence is keeping monetary conditions too tight (easy). Overall, we define monetary conditions to be “broadly neutral” when the indicator is between -0.5 and +0.5.

The second graph will be a graph with an inflation forecast for the given country three years ahead. The inflation forecasts is based on composite indicator for the monetary conditions (assuming no supply side shocks).

In addition to that there will be four graphs on the sub-indicators on which the composite indicator is constructed.

These indicators are the following: Broad money supply growth (typically M2 or M2), nominal demand growth (typically nominal GDP or nominal consumption expenditure), exchange rate developments and finally the key policy interest rates.

For each of these these indicators we calculate a level or a growth rate, which we think would be consistent with the given central bank’s inflation target. Based on this we calculate a gap between the policy-consistent growth rate of for example the money supply and the actual growth rate of the money supply. This gap we use as input into our composite indicator.

The Hungary central bank is on track to (nearly) hit its 3% inflation target

Yesterday we showed an example of how such a country page in the GMCM would look like. Yesterday’s example was Israel because we had a Israeli monetary policy decision yesterday. If you missed it yesterday have a look at the country page for Bank of Israel here.

Today we have another monetary policy decision in Hungary. Therefore we think it is suiting to use Hungary as the next example of a country page.

This is how it looks.

skaermbillede-2017-02-28-kl-08-50-47

If you want a closer look you can also see it in PDF here.

We are already getting a lot of feedback on the GMCM, but would be very happy to hear what you think so we can incorporate comments and ideas before the launch of the GMCM.

The Global Monetary Conditions Monitor will be priced at EUR 2,000 for a 12-month subscription. Furthermore, discounts can be negotiated for more than one subscription or as part of a general advisory deal.

If you want to hear more about Global Monetary Conditions Monitor please contact us by mail on LC@mamoadvisory.com (Lars Christensen) or LR@mamoadvisory.com (Laurids Rising).


See more on the Global Monetary Conditions Monitor:

M&M Advisory to launch new publication on Global Monetary Conditions

Our Global Monetary Conditions Monitor – what we write about Bank of Israel

Our Global Monetary Conditions Monitor – what we write about Bank of Israel

It is hard to be very critical about the conduct of monetary policy in Israel. I have earlier praised the Bank of Israel (BoI) for essentially being an NGDP targetter and when Stanley Fischer was BoI governor nominal GDP basically was kept on a straight line (see here).

And even though Fischer’s successor Karnit Flug initially back in 2014 kept monetary conditions slightly too tight (see here) it now seems like the BoI under Flug’s leadership is back on track.

At least that is what our – Markets & Money Advisory’s – composite indicator for Israeli monetary conditions is showing.

Introducing Global Monetary Conditions Monitor

The indicator will be part of the first edition of our new flagship publication Global Monetary Conditions Monitor (GMCM), which will be published in March and given the Bank of Israel today (3pm CET) has its monetary policy announce we thought it would be a good idea to share a page from the upcoming GMCM on israel.

You will see the country page on Israeli monetary conditions here.

skaermbillede-2017-02-28-kl-08-34-20

You can also see the page as a PDF here.

When we put out GMCM there will be 25 such pages on different countries plus of course addition commentary on global monetary matters. A 12 month subscription will be priced at EUR 2,000.

If you are interested in more information on the Global Monetary Conditions Monitor please let us know. Mail to LC@mamoadvisory.com or LR@mamoadvisory.com.

Please share!

Update:

As expected the BoI kept its key policy rate unchanged at 0.1%.


See more on the Global Monetary Conditions Monitor:

M&M Advisory to launch new publication on Global Monetary Conditions

Did you book your speaker? Book me

Did you book your speaker for this year’s seminar or conference? You might as well book me!

See a sample of my speeches here.

To book me internationally see here.

In Denmark see here.

Or contact me directly: LC@mamoadvisory.com

Recent speaking topics include:

  • Populism and the global economy and markets
  • 1930s style politics: Monetary policy failure and the emergence of Trump, Le Pen and Brexit
  • Will the euro survive the German, Dutch and French elections in 2017?
  • The African growth miracle
  • China will never be the largest economy in the world
  • Russia: Between oil prices, lack of reforms and geopolitical uncertainty
  • The Maghreb economies: A coming miracle or permanent stagnation?
  • Oil prices, monetary policy and the crisis in the Gulf States economies
  • Prediction markets – why governments and central banks should leave forecasts to the market
  • Global economic and financial outlook 2017/2018
  • Currency wars – good or bad?
  • The end of the ‘dollar bloc’
  • Global Monetary developments: The end of deflation?

 

The economic suffering of the Greek people is horrendous and it has to stop – interview on TRT World

Yesterday I was interviewed for TRT World about the Greek economy and possible Grexit. Have a look here.

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