Milton Friedman famously argued that central banks should follow a rule ensuring a constant growth rate of the money supply – also known as the k-rule.
The Federal Reserve attempted to implement a version of this rule in the late 1970s and 1980s, but with limited success. Since then, Fed officials have consistently maintained that such a rule is not appropriate for monetary policy.
However, examining the actual development in the US money supply (M2) over the past 25 years reveals an interesting pattern.
It appears the Fed is conducting monetary policy as if following a k-rule, but with a twist – it functions as a level rule. When the rule is overshot in one period, it will undershoot the target in another until the money supply returns to the stipulated level.
What’s happening is not that the Fed is deliberately targeting money supply levels, but rather that commercial banking sector money creation combined with money demand ensures the money supply grows at a rate that maintains US inflation at approximately 2% over time.
Perhaps the money supply provides more insight into whether the Fed will ease or tighten monetary policy than is commonly acknowledged.
Notably, over the past 25 years, there has only been one major deviation from this rule – during 2020-22 – yet we have now miraculously returned to the ‘old’ k-rule level.
In an era of rapid economic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and technological transformation, understanding the forces shaping our world has never been more crucial. That is precisely why Paice, a company I co-founded and am a co-owner of, has launched Globale Tanker—a new platform dedicated to sharing economic insights through lectures, blog posts, and podcasts.
A Danish Platform with a Global Perspective
Globale Tanker is a Danish-language platform designed to provide in-depth analysis of key economic and geopolitical issues. While the website is in Danish, my lectures and talks are available for booking outside of Denmark as well.
Having spent nearly three decades analysing global markets, monetary policy, and economic developments, I aim to bridge the gap between complex economic theory and real-world implications.
Whether it is emerging markets, inflation dynamics, AI-driven economic shifts, or the impact of geopolitics on financial markets, my talks offer a unique blend of data-driven insights and engaging storytelling.
Key Lectures Available for Booking
My speaking engagements are tailored for a wide range of audiences, including businesses, financial institutions, policymakers, and investors. Here are some of the most relevant topics I cover:
The return of inflation in 2025 has added new layers of uncertainty to the global economy. Trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and the evolving role of AI present challenges for businesses and investors. With President Trump’s second term shaping economic policy, this talk explores the consequences of protectionism, monetary policy, and shifting global alliances.
Is China’s economic miracle coming to an end? With a weakening real estate sector, slowing growth, and increasing domestic challenges, this talk examines China’s economic outlook and its implications for global markets.
Will artificial intelligence drive massive unemployment, or will it fuel the next wave of productivity growth? Looking at historical technological breakthroughs, this talk explores how AI will shape economic trends, financial markets, and investment strategies.
Obesity is not just a health crisis—it is an economic one. Rising healthcare costs, declining productivity, and shifts in global consumption patterns make obesity a macroeconomic issue. Could weight-loss drugs such as those developed by Novo Nordisk play a key role in revitalising economies?
From Moneyball in baseball to advanced analytics in the NBA and European football, data has revolutionised sports. This talk explores how sports clubs, investors, and businesses can leverage data to gain a competitive advantage.
Why Book a Lecture?
Each of my talks is designed to provide actionable insights, combining rigorous economic analysis with engaging narratives. Whether you are a corporate decision-maker, an investor, or a policymaker, these talks will help you navigate the uncertainties of today’s world.
To book a lecture or learn more about Globale Tanker, visit globaletanker.dk or reach out directly for international engagements.
The world is changing—let’s make sense of it together.
The term “pump and dump” refers to a scheme where certain investors acquire a financial asset at a low price and then actively attempt to inflate its market value by spreading positive narratives—often through social media or various online forums—causing the price to rise.
This is a well-known phenomenon, particularly in the world of small-cap stocks, but it is even more prevalent in the crypto space. Such behaviour is, in most cases, illegal. However, that does not seem to deter Donald Trump and his inner circle from engaging in precisely this tactic—now with the full financial muscle of the United States government behind them.
For some time, speculation has abounded that Trump would introduce a so-called “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” where the U.S. government would hold Bitcoin reserves—in effect, a state-backed Bitcoin purchasing strategy. However, in recent weeks, investors have begun to lose confidence that such a move would materialise.
Yet, this Sunday, Trump took to his own social media platform, Truth Social, to suggest that a “U.S. Crypto Reserve” would be a good idea. In a post Trump stated:
“A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA. I will make sure the U.S. is the Crypto Capital of the World. We are MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Notably, he did not speak of a Bitcoin Reserve but rather a Crypto Reserve, and he specifically mentioned several different cryptocurrencies.
One of the blockchains Trump explicitly highlighted was Solana.
And guess what? Trump’s very own memecoin, $TRUMP, has just been launched on the Solana blockchain.
In other words, Trump is now directly opening the door for the U.S. government to purchase $TRUMP coins. And, predictably, the price of Bitcoin has surged by approximately 7%. Meanwhile, $TRUMP has jumped by 18% compared to yesterday’s price.
This move must also be seen in the context of what I recently described as the unwinding of the Trump Trade. In my blog post, Trump-Trade Unwinding: Bitcoin, (Micro)Strategy and Tesla in the Silver Trap, I detailed how the post-election surge in Bitcoin, Tesla, and MicroStrategy appeared to be reversing, with Tesla already down over 30% and Bitcoin losing momentum.
I also noted that MicroStrategy (now Strategy)’s extreme exposure to Bitcoin posed significant systemic risks, similar to the Hunt brothers’ infamous attempt to corner the silver market in 1980.
Now, Trump’s announcement can be interpreted as an attempt to halt or even reverse this unwinding. By signalling potential government intervention in crypto markets, he is throwing a lifeline to struggling positions—possibly including those of his own allies.
Whether this effort will succeed or merely delay the inevitable remains to be seen, but the implications for market stability are profound.
Potential Legal Implications
I am not a legal expert, but from an economic perspective, Trump’s statement could be seen as market manipulation.
In traditional finance, attempts to inflate asset prices for personal or political gain—commonly known as “pump and dump” schemes—are illegal.
If the U.S. government starts acquiring cryptocurrencies like Solana, potentially benefiting Trump’s personal financial interests, this could invite scrutiny from regulatory bodies such as the SEC, CFTC, and DOJ.
The Broader Consequences of Politicised Financial Regulation
Beyond the immediate legal questions, today’s announcement highlights a much bigger issue: the increasing politicisation of financial regulatory institutions under Trump. Since taking office in January 2025, he has reshaped key financial regulatory agencies, including the SEC, CFTC, CFPB, and FDIC, placing individuals who align with his deregulatory vision. This move suggests that cryptocurrency policy is now being shaped as much by political motivations as by economic rationale.
The consequences of this shift could be profound:
Loss of Market Confidence – Investors, both in crypto and traditional finance, may start to question whether U.S. markets are being driven by economic fundamentals or by political favoritism.
Increased Volatility – The mere perception that government policy can be influenced by personal financial interests will make markets more unpredictable.
Legal Uncertainty – If laws and regulations change based on political convenience rather than clear regulatory frameworks, businesses and investors will face a chaotic environment.
With just a single social media post, Trump has significantly increased his personal wealth. There appear to be no limits to what he will do to enrich himself—even if it means undermining confidence in the global financial system.
And what about the “dump”? Well, perhaps some of Trump’s associates will now be able to exit some unfortunate crypto positions that have been underwater over the past month.
For those who believe in the potential of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies as viable financial instruments (as I indeed do), this should be infuriating. Rather than fostering trust in the crypto sector, Trump is blatantly politicising the market and encouraging fraudulent behaviour that destabilises confidence in the entire industry.
Lars Christensen
Mail:
lacsen@gmail.com
Phone:
+45 52 50 25 06
Speaker agency:
See my page at my Speaker Agency Youandx here:
https://www.youandx.com/speakers/lars-christensen
