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Finally some proper research from a central bank

I spend a lot of time complaining about the work central banks do these days. However, we should not forget (and that goes for you my dear US readers as well) that the European football championship (Euro 2012) kicks off today (the opening match is between host nation Poland and serial defaulter Greece). What do these two things have in common? Well, have a look at this (relatively) new Working Paper from the Dutch central bank. Here is the abstract:

At the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, many soccer matches were played during stock market trading hours, providing us with a natural experiment to analyze fluctuations in investor attention. Using minute‐by‐minute trading data for fifteen international stock exchanges, we present three key findings. First, when the national team was playing, the number of trades dropped by 45%, while volumes were 55% lower. Second, market activity was influenced by match events. For instance, a goal caused an additional drop in trading activity by 5%. The magnitude of this reduction resembles what is observed during lunchtime, and as such might not be indicative for shifts in attention. However, our third finding is that the comovement between national and global stock market returns decreased by over 20% during World Cup matches, whereas no comparable decoupling can be found during lunchtime. We conclude that stock markets were following developments on the soccer pitch rather than in the trading pit, leading to a changed price formation process.

Meanwhile at Dublin Airport this greeting for the Calvinists.

PS I co-authored this paper about the World Cup in 2010. You should note my prediction was wrong.

PPS it is no secret that other than my native Denmark I am cheering for Poland at euro 2012. I spend a lot of time in Poland over the past decade. It is a truly wonderful nation. I hope that they poles will have a lot of success at this championship.

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  1. Finally some proper research from a central bank « The Market … | South Africa Bank Blog

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