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It’s the economy stupid – this is why Le Pen won

I have argued it again and again – the continued crisis in the European economy is the primary source of political radicalisation, populism, extremism and outright fascism.

The French regional elections provided yet another sad testimony to that thesis. Here is the one-graph version of that idea.

Le Pen

The graph shows the support for the extremist/populist anti-immigration party Front National (FN) against the unemployment rate across different regions in France. Each dot represents a region.

The simple regression ‘model’ shows that a 1%-point increase in unemployment increases support for FN by nearly 5%-point.

So it might be that FN is helped by the recent terror attacks in Paris and by the ‘refugee crisis’, but this is mostly about a weak French economy.

So if you want to blame anybody for the electoral success of Front National you should point the fingers at Jean Claude Trichet who as ECB-chief in 2011 hiked interest rates twice and at president Holland who has done everything to worsen the already bad competitive position of the French economy since he became president in 2012.

HT: This post have been inspired by a post on the same topic on Bloombergviews by .

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If you want to hear me speak about these topics or other related topics don’t hesitate to contact my speaker agency Specialist Speakers – e-mail: daniel@specialistspeakers.com or roz@specialistspeakers.com.

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Hollande’s Danish spectacles – Is France the next trouble spot in the euro zone?

This is from the Telegraph:

François Hollande has been urged to drop his new dark-rimmed Danish designer spectacles for ones “Made in France”, with Gallic makers saying his choice is unpatriotic at a time when the government is promoting home-grown products.

Domestic spectacle makers saw red when they discovered two weeks ago that their Socialist president had exchanged his old French rimless glasses for rectangular, retro Scandinavian ones.

The directors of a company called Roussilhe, near Nantes, western France and employing 35 people, decided to send him a pair of similar specs “but 100 per cent made in France” with a label guaranteeing proof of origin.

The pair came with a letter in which the bosses fretted about the “intense international competition” they faced, the need to “bolster local savoir-faire” and “to retain our jobs after two decades of layoffs”.

“By wearing our glasses, you will become an ambassador of French spectacles around the world,” they wrote.

Mr Hollande, whose office pointed out that the lenses of his current glasses are in fact French and only the frames foreign, reportedly phoned the company no sooner had he read the letter and offered to buy another pair of their sunglasses for the summer on the spot.

A second French company then waded in, with Sabine Begault Vagner from Orleans sending him a “pretty pair of blue and red rectangular glasses”. The Elysée rang her too, saying the president would use them as his spares.

The “spectacle affair” emerged on the day that Arnaud Montebourg, France’s flamboyant economy minister was due to unveil his “roadmap for French economic recovery”, including a plan to create “tamper-proof” secret codes on tags for wine, foie gras and other local products to promote “le Made in France”.

Besides irking French spectacle makers, Mr Hollande’s change in glasses has triggered furious debate among political observers over their symbolism.

Jacques Séguéla, the advertising guru, said the new glasses were “final proof of his reformist coming of age”.

It is rumoured that the Danish Prime Minister recently had a glass of French red wine. There was no public uproar over that in Denmark.

But given this story it is hard not to think why France will not be the next euro zone country to get into (renewed) trouble…

 

 

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